2026 NFL · Week 5
NFL odds and playoff chances
This week's point spreads and totals turned into plain win probabilities, plus every team's chances to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.
Week 5 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Projected score | Win chance | Moneyline |
|---|
| TB @ DAL 10/08 |
DAL −8.5 |
47.5 |
TB 19.5 – DAL 28.0 |
DAL 79% |
TB +350 · DAL -455 |
| PHI @ JAX 10/11 |
JAX −7.0 |
42.5 |
PHI 17.8 – JAX 24.8 |
JAX 75% |
PHI +280 · JAX -355 |
| CHI @ GB 10/11 |
CHI −3.0 |
45.5 |
CHI 24.2 – GB 21.2 |
CHI 58% |
CHI -155 · GB +130 |
| CIN @ MIA 10/11 |
CIN −7.0 |
42.5 |
CIN 24.8 – MIA 17.8 |
CIN 74% |
CIN -345 · MIA +275 |
| LV @ NE 10/11 |
NE −3.5 |
45.5 |
LV 21.0 – NE 24.5 |
NE 63% |
LV +160 · NE -192 |
| MIN @ NO 10/11 |
MIN −1.5 |
42.5 |
MIN 22.0 – NO 20.5 |
MIN 53% |
MIN -125 · NO +105 |
| CLE @ NYJ 10/11 |
NYJ −2.5 |
39.5 |
CLE 18.5 – NYJ 21.0 |
NYJ 54% |
CLE +110 · NYJ -130 |
| IND @ PIT 10/11 |
PIT −2.5 |
44.5 |
IND 21.0 – PIT 23.5 |
PIT 57% |
IND +124 · PIT -148 |
| HOU @ TEN 10/11 |
HOU −7.5 |
37.5 |
HOU 22.5 – TEN 15.0 |
HOU 75% |
HOU -360 · TEN +285 |
| NYG @ WAS 10/11 |
WAS −3.5 |
43.5 |
NYG 20.0 – WAS 23.5 |
WAS 62% |
NYG +150 · WAS -180 |
| DEN @ LAC 10/11 |
DEN −3.5 |
42.5 |
DEN 23.0 – LAC 19.5 |
DEN 62% |
DEN -185 · LAC +154 |
| DET @ ARI 10/11 |
DET −5.5 |
54.5 |
DET 30.0 – ARI 24.5 |
DET 69% |
DET -258 · ARI +210 |
| SF @ SEA 10/11 |
SEA −2.5 |
46.5 |
SF 22.0 – SEA 24.5 |
SEA 58% |
SF +130 · SEA -155 |
| BAL @ ATL 10/11 |
ATL −3.5 |
43.5 |
BAL 20.0 – ATL 23.5 |
ATL 61% |
BAL +145 · ATL -175 |
| BUF @ LA 10/12 |
LA −3.0 |
54.5 |
BUF 25.8 – LA 28.8 |
LA 59% |
BUF +136 · LA -162 |
Win chance comes from the moneylines with the sportsbook's cut removed. Projected score splits the total by the spread (the same implied team totals our fantasy projections use).
Playoff and Super Bowl odds
Tap any column header to sort.
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Playoffs | Win division | #1 seed | Win conference | Win Super Bowl | Rating |
|---|
| BUF AFC East | 3-1 | 11.2 |
89.4% | 75.5% | 22.4% | 21.0% | 11.8% | +4.7 |
| KC AFC West | 4-0 | 11.6 |
91.0% | 70.5% | 29.7% | 20.3% | 11.3% | +4.1 |
| SEA NFC West | 3-1 | 10.6 |
75.6% | 31.8% | 17.1% | 17.1% | 9.0% | +4.1 |
| SF NFC West | 4-0 | 11.3 |
85.5% | 48.1% | 29.4% | 17.2% | 8.5% | +2.9 |
| JAX AFC South | 3-1 | 10.8 |
84.8% | 73.2% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 7.6% | +3.1 |
| LA NFC West | 2-2 | 10.0 |
64.5% | 19.9% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 7.5% | +4.4 |
| DET NFC North | 2-2 | 10.1 |
65.9% | 29.8% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 5.9% | +2.8 |
| BAL AFC North | 3-1 | 10.2 |
71.6% | 41.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 4.8% | +2.0 |
| DEN AFC West | 2-2 | 9.7 |
63.0% | 21.7% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 4.4% | +2.9 |
| CIN AFC North | 2-2 | 9.9 |
68.1% | 35.4% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 4.2% | +2.2 |
| MIN NFC North | 4-0 | 10.6 |
74.9% | 41.6% | 16.2% | 9.1% | 4.2% | +0.3 |
| CHI NFC North | 3-1 | 9.6 |
56.2% | 21.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% | +1.1 |
| DAL NFC East | 2-2 | 9.0 |
48.6% | 37.6% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 2.7% | +1.2 |
| NE AFC East | 2-2 | 9.2 |
53.6% | 21.8% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 2.7% | +1.2 |
| PHI NFC East | 2-2 | 9.0 |
51.1% | 39.9% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 2.7% | +1.2 |
| CAR NFC South | 2-2 | 8.2 |
44.7% | 40.9% | 1.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | -0.9 |
| HOU AFC South | 0-4 | 7.6 |
22.1% | 8.3% | 0.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | +2.1 |
| PIT AFC North | 2-2 | 8.5 |
39.2% | 12.9% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% | +0.1 |
| GB NFC North | 2-2 | 8.2 |
28.0% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | -0.2 |
| IND AFC South | 2-2 | 8.6 |
40.5% | 18.2% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | -0.6 |
| ATL NFC South | 2-2 | 7.8 |
35.6% | 31.1% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | -2.0 |
| NO NFC South | 1-3 | 7.2 |
24.0% | 21.3% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | -2.2 |
| CLE AFC North | 3-1 | 8.1 |
30.2% | 9.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | -4.4 |
| LV AFC West | 3-1 | 8.1 |
29.8% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | -2.8 |
| NYG NFC East | 3-1 | 7.8 |
25.0% | 17.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | -4.0 |
| ARI NFC West | 1-3 | 6.1 |
4.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -3.0 |
| LAC AFC West | 0-4 | 6.1 |
7.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | +0.0 |
| NYJ AFC East | 1-3 | 6.4 |
8.4% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -3.4 |
| TB NFC South | 0-4 | 5.6 |
7.4% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -2.3 |
| WAS NFC East | 1-3 | 6.5 |
8.7% | 5.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | -3.1 |
| MIA AFC East | 0-4 | 3.9 |
0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.2 |
| TEN AFC South | 0-4 | 4.4 |
0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -5.6 |
AFC East
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Division | Playoffs |
|---|
| BUF | 3-1 | 11.2 | 75.5% | 89.4% |
| NE | 2-2 | 9.2 | 21.8% | 53.6% |
| NYJ | 1-3 | 6.4 | 2.5% | 8.4% |
| MIA | 0-4 | 3.9 | 0.2% | 0.4% |
AFC North
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Division | Playoffs |
|---|
| BAL | 3-1 | 10.2 | 41.9% | 71.6% |
| CIN | 2-2 | 9.9 | 35.4% | 68.1% |
| PIT | 2-2 | 8.5 | 12.9% | 39.2% |
| CLE | 3-1 | 8.1 | 9.9% | 30.2% |
AFC South
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Division | Playoffs |
|---|
| JAX | 3-1 | 10.8 | 73.2% | 84.8% |
| IND | 2-2 | 8.6 | 18.2% | 40.5% |
| HOU | 0-4 | 7.6 | 8.3% | 22.1% |
| TEN | 0-4 | 4.4 | 0.3% | 0.8% |
AFC West
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Division | Playoffs |
|---|
| KC | 4-0 | 11.6 | 70.5% | 91.0% |
| DEN | 2-2 | 9.7 | 21.7% | 63.0% |
| LV | 3-1 | 8.1 | 6.6% | 29.8% |
| LAC | 0-4 | 6.1 | 1.2% | 7.0% |
NFC East
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Division | Playoffs |
|---|
| DAL | 2-2 | 9.0 | 37.6% | 48.6% |
| PHI | 2-2 | 9.0 | 39.9% | 51.1% |
| NYG | 3-1 | 7.8 | 17.2% | 25.0% |
| WAS | 1-3 | 6.5 | 5.3% | 8.7% |
NFC North
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Division | Playoffs |
|---|
| MIN | 4-0 | 10.6 | 41.6% | 74.9% |
| DET | 2-2 | 10.1 | 29.8% | 65.9% |
| CHI | 3-1 | 9.6 | 21.6% | 56.2% |
| GB | 2-2 | 8.2 | 7.0% | 28.0% |
NFC South
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Division | Playoffs |
|---|
| CAR | 2-2 | 8.2 | 40.9% | 44.7% |
| ATL | 2-2 | 7.8 | 31.1% | 35.6% |
| NO | 1-3 | 7.2 | 21.3% | 24.0% |
| TB | 0-4 | 5.6 | 6.6% | 7.4% |
NFC West
| Team | Record | Proj wins | Division | Playoffs |
|---|
| SF | 4-0 | 11.3 | 48.1% | 85.5% |
| SEA | 3-1 | 10.6 | 31.8% | 75.6% |
| LA | 2-2 | 10.0 | 19.9% | 64.5% |
| ARI | 1-3 | 6.1 | 0.3% | 4.4% |
How the odds work
- Team ratings
- Every point spread this season is the betting market's view of two teams, so each team gets a rating (points better or worse than an average team on a neutral field) that best fits all of them, plus a home-field edge of about 1.6 points.
- Simulation
- The rest of the schedule is played 10,000 times from those ratings, with each team's rating nudged a little in every simulated season because teams change over a year. Playoffs follow the NFL format: four division winners and three wild cards per conference, a bye for the top seed, and re-seeding each round. Ties in the standings are broken at random rather than with the full NFL tiebreakers.
- What this isn't
- These are probabilities, not picks. Lines move with injury news, and no model beats the market by much. If you bet, only bet what you can afford to lose. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.