2026 NFL · Week 5

Week 5 running back rankings

Projected PPR points from each player's recent share of his team's targets and carries, his efficiency, and this week's matchup. Updated every morning, including after the injury report.

These are model projections, not guarantees. They don't know about news that breaks after the latest injury report, so check final statuses before kickoff.

Tap any column header to sort.

QB RB WR TE K

#	Player	Opp	Proj	Range	Boom	Matchup	Weather	Volume	Season PPR/g
1	Jahmyr Gibbs DET	@ARI	20.2	8.6–34.0	55%	31	85° · 15 mph · 53% retractable roof	7.5 tgt, 21.1 car	29.0
2	Kyren Williams LA	BUF	19.7	7.6–33.8	52%	6	Indoors	7.3 tgt, 15.8 car	22.4
3	Javonte Williams DAL	TB	18.7	7.2–30.4	48%	23	80° · 5 mph retractable roof	3.8 tgt, 16.1 car	20.4
4	Jonathan Taylor IND	@PIT	16.7	6.3–32.1	36%	9	70° · 7 mph · 26%	3.7 tgt, 19.9 car	21.6
5	Bijan Robinson ATL	BAL	16.6	6.9–28.7	34%	22	69° · 15 mph · 39% retractable roof	2.4 tgt, 20.3 car	26.3
6	James Cook BUF	@LA	16.2	7.1–27.9	33%	30	Indoors	1.9 tgt, 17.5 car	16.6
7	Jaylen Warren PIT	IND	15.7	6.2–26.9	28%	10	70° · 7 mph · 26%	4.9 tgt, 16.4 car	14.1
8	Christian McCaffrey SF	@SEA	15.6	6.7–30.4	39%	16	57° · 8 mph · 1%	5.0 tgt, 13.9 car	18.5
9	Chase Brown CIN	@MIA	15.3	7.0–27.3	32%	5	87° · 12 mph · 26%	5.9 tgt, 14.3 car	14.5
10	Ashton Jeanty LV	@NE	14.7	6.0–27.8	31%	18	67° · 9 mph · 1%	5.5 tgt, 19.2 car	18.5
11	D'Andre Swift CHI	@GB	14.3	4.4–20.1	16%	2	73° · 10 mph · 4%	2.8 tgt, 16.4 car	15.9
12	Derrick Henry BAL	@ATL	14.1	6.2–24.1	26%	27	69° · 15 mph · 39% retractable roof	1.8 tgt, 23.3 car	22.7
13	Aaron Jones MIN	@NO	13.4	4.7–23.5	19%	1	Indoors	4.8 tgt, 20.5 car	12.9
14	Quinshon Judkins CLE	@NYJ	11.8	4.3–23.4	19%	4	69° · 8 mph · 3%	4.6 tgt, 15.3 car	12.1
15	Cam Skattebo NYG	@WAS	11.8	4.3–23.3	17%	29	67° · 7 mph · 24%	2.8 tgt, 18.4 car	11.1
16	Bhayshul Tuten JAX	PHI	11.6	3.4–21.6	11%	12	Neutral site: no forecast	2.0 tgt, 16.2 car	13.0
17	Kyle Monangai CHI	@GB	11.3	3.7–21.4	17%	2	73° · 10 mph · 4%	0.9 tgt, 17.0 car	14.8
18	Bucky Irving TB	@DAL	11.1	3.6–21.2	14%	13	80° · 5 mph retractable roof	1.8 tgt, 14.8 car	11.8
19	Emanuel Wilson SEA	SF	10.9	2.7–20.7	12%	8	57° · 8 mph · 1%	3.1 tgt, 16.2 car	9.5
20	Rhamondre Stevenson NE	LV	10.8	3.4–21.3	15%	17	67° · 9 mph · 1%	3.5 tgt, 9.3 car	10.8
21	Braelon Allen NYJ	CLE	10.4	2.4–18.6	17%	28	69° · 8 mph · 3%	2.7 tgt, 14.9 car	6.5
22	David Montgomery HOU	@TEN	10.1	2.4–20.3	12%	19	71° · 10 mph · 62% Rain likely	1.1 tgt, 11.0 car	11.1
23	Tony Pollard TEN	HOU	10.0	3.1–19.3	9%	25	71° · 10 mph · 62% Rain likely	3.2 tgt, 14.6 car	9.6
24	Jeremiyah Love ARI	DET	9.9	3.4–22.0	15%	14	85° · 15 mph · 53% retractable roof	2.5 tgt, 15.8 car	12.2
25	Omarion Hampton LAC	DEN	9.6	3.0–21.0	9%	7	Indoors	1.7 tgt, 12.6 car	11.2
26	Ollie Gordon II MIA	CIN	8.9	1.8–18.9	8%	21	87° · 12 mph · 26%	2.2 tgt, 10.4 car	11.1
27	Travis Etienne NO	MIN	8.7	2.7–20.1	11%	32	Indoors	3.4 tgt, 9.7 car	10.3
28	Alvin Kamara NO	MIN	8.2	2.0–19.1	10%	32	Indoors	5.1 tgt, 8.6 car	11.7
29	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS	NYG	8.1	1.8–18.7	7%	15	67° · 7 mph · 24%	2.3 tgt, 13.5 car	7.7
30	MarShawn Lloyd GB	CHI	8.1	1.5–18.4	7%	26	73° · 10 mph · 4%	4.3 tgt, 6.2 car	6.5
31	RJ Harvey DEN	@LAC	8.0	2.7–20.8	13%	11	Indoors	7.2 tgt, 5.0 car	12.7
32	Tyler Allgeier ARI	DET	7.9	1.6–18.3	5%	14	85° · 15 mph · 53% retractable roof	2.5 tgt, 6.1 car	7.7
33	Woody Marks HOU	@TEN	7.7	1.7–18.6	7%	19	71° · 10 mph · 62% Rain likely	1.9 tgt, 7.2 car	7.7
34	Kenny Gainwell TB	@DAL	7.6	0.8–15.3	5%	13	80° · 5 mph retractable roof	3.2 tgt, 2.6 car	5.2
35	TreVeyon Henderson NE	LV	7.4	1.7–17.7	8%	17	67° · 9 mph · 1%	1.1 tgt, 12.2 car	7.2
36	J.K. Dobbins DEN	@LAC	7.2	0.7–16.1	6%	11	Indoors	1.4 tgt, 11.8 car	5.2
37	Brian Robinson ATL	BAL	6.8	2.5–18.6	10%	22	69° · 15 mph · 39% retractable roof	0.9 tgt, 11.9 car	12.1
38	De'Von Achane MIA	CIN	6.8	1.9–18.7	8%	21	87° · 12 mph · 26%	3.3 tgt, 9.1 car	8.2
39	Keaton Mitchell LAC	DEN	6.1	1.5–17.5	6%	7	Indoors	3.9 tgt, 7.7 car	7.7
40	Saquon Barkley PHI	@JAX	5.6	0.8–15.9	4%	23	Neutral site: no forecast	1.5 tgt, 7.7 car	5.8
41	Kimani Vidal LAC	DEN	5.3	0.6–11.7	3%	7	Indoors	2.2 tgt, 2.5 car	4.9
42	Tank Bigsby PHI	@JAX	4.9	0.4–15.5	4%	23	Neutral site: no forecast	1.2 tgt, 8.8 car	4.3
43	George Holani SEA	SF	4.9	0.5–14.6	3%	8	57° · 8 mph · 1%	1.9 tgt, 5.0 car	4.8
44	Raheim Sanders CLE	@NYJ	4.8	0.5–10.2	2%	4	69° · 8 mph · 3%	2.5 tgt, 1.6 car	5.1
45	Blake Corum LA	BUF	4.7	0.5–13.8	3%	6	Indoors	2.0 tgt, 6.9 car	5.6
46	Samaje Perine CIN	@MIA	4.5	0.4–12.4	3%	5	87° · 12 mph · 26%	1.6 tgt, 3.5 car	3.6
47	Justice Hill BAL	@ATL	4.4	0.2–10.8	2%	27	69° · 15 mph · 39% retractable roof	1.7 tgt, 2.4 car	3.8
48	Tyjae Spears TEN Q	HOU	4.4	0.3–10.4	3%	25	71° · 10 mph · 62% Rain likely	1.1 tgt, 2.9 car	3.9
49	Ty Johnson BUF	@LA	4.2	0.3–10.8	2%	30	Indoors	2.8 tgt	6.1
50	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX	PHI	4.0	0.4–11.8	3%	12	Neutral site: no forecast	0.0 tgt, 6.8 car	5.7
51	Kendre Miller NO	MIN	3.7	0.2–12.5	3%	32	Indoors	2.3 tgt, 6.8 car	4.9
52	Will Shipley PHI	@JAX	3.5	0.4–11.2	2%	23	Neutral site: no forecast	1.5 tgt, 4.0 car	2.9
53	Seth McGowan IND	@PIT	3.4	0.4–10.7	2%	9	70° · 7 mph · 26%	1.1 tgt, 4.3 car	1.8
54	Austin Ekeler WAS	NYG	3.3	0.2–12.0	2%	15	67° · 7 mph · 24%	1.8 tgt, 5.4 car	5.0
55	Kaelon Black SF	@SEA	3.3	0.2–11.5	2%	16	57° · 8 mph · 1%	0.3 tgt, 5.5 car	3.4
56	Kaleb Johnson GB	CHI	3.1	0.3–13.4	4%	26	73° · 10 mph · 4%	0.7 tgt, 7.0 car	2.0
57	Mike Washington Jr. LV	@NE	2.7	0.1–11.3	2%	18	67° · 9 mph · 1%	0.9 tgt, 7.4 car	4.7
58	Tyler Badie DEN	@LAC	2.6	0.0–10.0	2%	11	Indoors	1.8 tgt, 1.5 car	5.1
59	Najee Harris NYG	@WAS	2.0	0.1–12.7	2%	29	67° · 7 mph · 24%	0.0 tgt, 8.3 car	2.9
60	Sean Tucker TB	@DAL	1.9	0.0–10.0	2%	13	80° · 5 mph retractable roof	0.0 tgt, 2.3 car	7.0

On bye: Kenneth Walker III · Chuba Hubbard · Emmett Johnson · AJ Dillon

How the projections work

A gradient-boosted model trained on every QB, RB, WR and TE game from 2018–2024 projects a median, a floor and a ceiling for each player. The floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentiles, so about 8 in 10 games land inside the range. Boom is the chance of a big game: QB 25+, RB/WR 20+, TE 15+. Inputs include recent points, expected points from usage, snap, target and carry share, Vegas implied team totals, and how many points the opponent allows to the position. Tested on the 2025 season it never saw, the median was off by 5.1 points per player-week, versus 5.5 for season averages, and the range caught 78% of outcomes. See the weekly accuracy scorecard → Matchup rank: 1 is the defense that allows the most points to the position, so lower is better.